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OCCUPATION PROFILE · ISCO 2512

Software developers

Emerging disruption pressure. This profile combines theoretical task exposure, observed professional AI use, and a deliberately weak early labour-market signal. It does not claim that software developers will disappear.

JOB DOOM34.8out of 100occupation disruption profile, not a disappearance forecast
Job Doom
34.8
Confidence
66/100
Countries represented
134
ILO exposure class
Gradient 3
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CURRENT SCORE

Why the score is 34.8

The ILO signal covers 8 international task statements. The observed-use measure maps the nearest compatible O*NET occupation from the Anthropic dataset. Mapping uncertainty is included in confidence.

Theoretical task exposure 35% weight
52.7

How much of the international occupation's task content GenAI could technically assist or perform.

Observed professional adoption 55% weight
28.8

How much capable task coverage appears in automated or work-related Claude usage.

Early labour-market signal 10% weight
5.8

Capped at one fifth of observed adoption because broad unemployment effects have not been established.

DoomBench display occupation
Software developers
International mapping
Software developers · ISCO 2512
Observed-use mapping
Software Developers · SOC 15-1252
EVIDENCE OVER TIME

Job Doom progression

Scores change only when comparable evidence becomes available. The June 2026 release changed its measurement pipeline, so the March value is held rather than manufacturing a false movement.

025507510018.42025-0534.82026-0334.82026-06
  1. 18.4ILO refined exposure plus March 2025 observed-use proxy
  2. 34.8Observed occupation exposure published
  3. 34.8Held pending a directly comparable occupation update
ECONOMIC RELEVANCE

Countries where this job enters the 90% set

The same job score is reused internationally, while its estimated GDP importance changes with each country's economy. This avoids pretending sparse local score evidence means the occupation behaves differently without proof.

134 of 134 countries

  1. Luxembourg 🇱🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    3.31%
    Country Job Doom
    30.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  2. Monaco 🇲🇨

    Estimated GDP share
    3.21%
    Country Job Doom
    29.5
    Country confidence
    61/100

  3. United Kingdom 🇬🇧

    Estimated GDP share
    2.98%
    Country Job Doom
    27.8
    Country confidence
    70/100

  4. United States 🇺🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    2.96%
    Country Job Doom
    27.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  5. Vatican City 🇻🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    2.74%
    Country Job Doom
    28.0
    Country confidence
    51/100

  6. Switzerland 🇨🇭

    Estimated GDP share
    2.71%
    Country Job Doom
    25.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  7. Netherlands 🇳🇱

    Estimated GDP share
    2.61%
    Country Job Doom
    26.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  8. Singapore 🇸🇬

    Estimated GDP share
    2.53%
    Country Job Doom
    26.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  9. Andorra 🇦🇩

    Estimated GDP share
    2.46%
    Country Job Doom
    26.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  10. Israel 🇮🇱

    Estimated GDP share
    2.30%
    Country Job Doom
    25.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  11. France 🇫🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    2.29%
    Country Job Doom
    25.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  12. Greece 🇬🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    2.25%
    Country Job Doom
    25.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  13. Portugal 🇵🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    2.21%
    Country Job Doom
    24.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  14. Ireland 🇮🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    2.19%
    Country Job Doom
    22.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  15. Liechtenstein 🇱🇮

    Estimated GDP share
    2.19%
    Country Job Doom
    22.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  16. Malta 🇲🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    2.19%
    Country Job Doom
    25.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  17. Bahamas 🇧🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    2.18%
    Country Job Doom
    25.2
    Country confidence
    70/100

  18. Estonia 🇪🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    2.17%
    Country Job Doom
    24.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  19. Spain 🇪🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    2.17%
    Country Job Doom
    24.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  20. Costa Rica 🇨🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    2.16%
    Country Job Doom
    24.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  21. St. Kitts and Nevis 🇰🇳

    Estimated GDP share
    2.16%
    Country Job Doom
    24.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  22. Sweden 🇸🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    2.16%
    Country Job Doom
    23.9
    Country confidence
    71/100

  23. New Zealand 🇳🇿

    Estimated GDP share
    2.14%
    Country Job Doom
    24.1
    Country confidence
    71/100

  24. Cyprus 🇨🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    2.13%
    Country Job Doom
    25.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  25. Latvia 🇱🇻

    Estimated GDP share
    2.13%
    Country Job Doom
    24.1
    Country confidence
    71/100

  26. Croatia 🇭🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    2.12%
    Country Job Doom
    24.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  27. Iceland 🇮🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    2.12%
    Country Job Doom
    23.9
    Country confidence
    71/100

  28. Uruguay 🇺🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    2.12%
    Country Job Doom
    24.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  29. Bulgaria 🇧🇬

    Estimated GDP share
    2.10%
    Country Job Doom
    23.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  30. Bahrain 🇧🇭

    Estimated GDP share
    2.09%
    Country Job Doom
    20.7
    Country confidence
    70/100

  31. Barbados 🇧🇧

    Estimated GDP share
    2.09%
    Country Job Doom
    24.9
    Country confidence
    71/100

  32. Lithuania 🇱🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    2.09%
    Country Job Doom
    23.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  33. Australia 🇦🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    2.08%
    Country Job Doom
    23.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  34. Italy 🇮🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    2.08%
    Country Job Doom
    22.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  35. Austria 🇦🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    2.07%
    Country Job Doom
    23.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  36. Japan 🇯🇵

    Estimated GDP share
    2.07%
    Country Job Doom
    22.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  37. Finland 🇫🇮

    Estimated GDP share
    2.05%
    Country Job Doom
    23.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  38. Germany 🇩🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    2.05%
    Country Job Doom
    22.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  39. Belgium 🇧🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    2.04%
    Country Job Doom
    24.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  40. Denmark 🇩🇰

    Estimated GDP share
    2.04%
    Country Job Doom
    23.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  41. Palau 🇵🇼

    Estimated GDP share
    2.03%
    Country Job Doom
    23.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  42. Hungary 🇭🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    2.02%
    Country Job Doom
    22.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  43. Nauru 🇳🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    2.02%
    Country Job Doom
    22.6
    Country confidence
    51/100

  44. Canada 🇨🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.98%
    Country Job Doom
    22.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  45. Seychelles 🇸🇨

    Estimated GDP share
    1.98%
    Country Job Doom
    23.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  46. Romania 🇷🇴

    Estimated GDP share
    1.97%
    Country Job Doom
    22.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  47. Poland 🇵🇱

    Estimated GDP share
    1.95%
    Country Job Doom
    22.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  48. Antigua and Barbuda 🇦🇬

    Estimated GDP share
    1.92%
    Country Job Doom
    23.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  49. Slovak Republic 🇸🇰

    Estimated GDP share
    1.92%
    Country Job Doom
    21.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  50. Czechia 🇨🇿

    Estimated GDP share
    1.91%
    Country Job Doom
    22.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  51. Slovenia 🇸🇮

    Estimated GDP share
    1.91%
    Country Job Doom
    22.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  52. Panama 🇵🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.86%
    Country Job Doom
    23.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  53. Russia 🇷🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    1.85%
    Country Job Doom
    21.3
    Country confidence
    70/100

  54. Montenegro 🇲🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    1.82%
    Country Job Doom
    24.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  55. Trinidad and Tobago 🇹🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    1.80%
    Country Job Doom
    20.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  56. Chile 🇨🇱

    Estimated GDP share
    1.77%
    Country Job Doom
    20.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  57. San Marino 🇸🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.77%
    Country Job Doom
    20.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  58. South Korea 🇰🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    1.77%
    Country Job Doom
    20.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  59. Norway 🇳🇴

    Estimated GDP share
    1.74%
    Country Job Doom
    20.1
    Country confidence
    70/100

  60. Tuvalu 🇹🇻

    Estimated GDP share
    1.73%
    Country Job Doom
    22.3
    Country confidence
    63/100

  61. Cuba 🇨🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    1.67%
    Country Job Doom
    22.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  62. St. Lucia 🇱🇨

    Estimated GDP share
    1.64%
    Country Job Doom
    23.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  63. Georgia 🇬🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    1.63%
    Country Job Doom
    21.9
    Country confidence
    71/100

  64. Moldova 🇲🇩

    Estimated GDP share
    1.61%
    Country Job Doom
    21.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  65. Maldives 🇲🇻

    Estimated GDP share
    1.59%
    Country Job Doom
    22.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  66. Ukraine 🇺🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.58%
    Country Job Doom
    21.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  67. Serbia 🇷🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    1.57%
    Country Job Doom
    21.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  68. South Africa 🇿🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.57%
    Country Job Doom
    20.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  69. Brazil 🇧🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    1.56%
    Country Job Doom
    21.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  70. Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.55%
    Country Job Doom
    21.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  71. Cabo Verde 🇨🇻

    Estimated GDP share
    1.55%
    Country Job Doom
    22.1
    Country confidence
    71/100

  72. Botswana 🇧🇼

    Estimated GDP share
    1.54%
    Country Job Doom
    20.8
    Country confidence
    70/100

  73. Micronesia 🇫🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.54%
    Country Job Doom
    20.6
    Country confidence
    72/100

  74. Samoa 🇼🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    1.51%
    Country Job Doom
    21.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  75. El Salvador 🇸🇻

    Estimated GDP share
    1.50%
    Country Job Doom
    20.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  76. Grenada 🇬🇩

    Estimated GDP share
    1.50%
    Country Job Doom
    21.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  77. Kuwait 🇰🇼

    Estimated GDP share
    1.50%
    Country Job Doom
    17.9
    Country confidence
    70/100

  78. Marshall Islands 🇲🇭

    Estimated GDP share
    1.50%
    Country Job Doom
    20.4
    Country confidence
    72/100

  79. Türkiye 🇹🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    1.50%
    Country Job Doom
    20.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  80. Argentina 🇦🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Country Job Doom
    20.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  81. Armenia 🇦🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Country Job Doom
    20.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  82. Guatemala 🇬🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Country Job Doom
    20.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  83. Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Country Job Doom
    18.1
    Country confidence
    71/100

  84. St. Vincent and the Grenadines 🇻🇨

    Estimated GDP share
    1.49%
    Country Job Doom
    22.1
    Country confidence
    71/100

  85. North Macedonia 🇲🇰

    Estimated GDP share
    1.47%
    Country Job Doom
    19.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  86. Colombia 🇨🇴

    Estimated GDP share
    1.45%
    Country Job Doom
    19.3
    Country confidence
    72/100

  87. Philippines 🇵🇭

    Estimated GDP share
    1.44%
    Country Job Doom
    19.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  88. Jordan 🇯🇴

    Estimated GDP share
    1.42%
    Country Job Doom
    19.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  89. Mauritius 🇲🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    1.42%
    Country Job Doom
    20.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  90. United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    1.42%
    Country Job Doom
    18.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  91. Belize 🇧🇿

    Estimated GDP share
    1.41%
    Country Job Doom
    20.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  92. Mexico 🇲🇽

    Estimated GDP share
    1.41%
    Country Job Doom
    19.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  93. Ecuador 🇪🇨

    Estimated GDP share
    1.38%
    Country Job Doom
    18.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  94. Kazakhstan 🇰🇿

    Estimated GDP share
    1.38%
    Country Job Doom
    18.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  95. Sri Lanka 🇱🇰

    Estimated GDP share
    1.38%
    Country Job Doom
    19.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  96. Jamaica 🇯🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.35%
    Country Job Doom
    20.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  97. Oman 🇴🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.32%
    Country Job Doom
    16.8
    Country confidence
    70/100

  98. Dominica 🇩🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.31%
    Country Job Doom
    18.9
    Country confidence
    71/100

  99. Lebanon 🇱🇧

    Estimated GDP share
    1.31%
    Country Job Doom
    23.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  100. Qatar 🇶🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    1.30%
    Country Job Doom
    16.1
    Country confidence
    70/100

  101. Albania 🇦🇱

    Estimated GDP share
    1.29%
    Country Job Doom
    17.9
    Country confidence
    72/100

  102. China 🇨🇳

    Estimated GDP share
    1.29%
    Country Job Doom
    18.4
    Country confidence
    71/100

  103. Fiji 🇫🇯

    Estimated GDP share
    1.28%
    Country Job Doom
    18.8
    Country confidence
    72/100

  104. Belarus 🇧🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    1.27%
    Country Job Doom
    18.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  105. Equatorial Guinea 🇬🇶

    Estimated GDP share
    1.24%
    Country Job Doom
    17.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  106. Malaysia 🇲🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    1.24%
    Country Job Doom
    17.9
    Country confidence
    72/100

  107. Dominican Republic 🇩🇴

    Estimated GDP share
    1.23%
    Country Job Doom
    18.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  108. Peru 🇵🇪

    Estimated GDP share
    1.23%
    Country Job Doom
    17.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  109. Suriname 🇸🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    1.23%
    Country Job Doom
    17.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  110. Sao Tome and Principe 🇸🇹

    Estimated GDP share
    1.22%
    Country Job Doom
    20.4
    Country confidence
    72/100

  111. Paraguay 🇵🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    1.17%
    Country Job Doom
    17.3
    Country confidence
    72/100

  112. Iraq 🇮🇶

    Estimated GDP share
    1.16%
    Country Job Doom
    17.0
    Country confidence
    70/100

  113. Thailand 🇹🇭

    Estimated GDP share
    1.15%
    Country Job Doom
    18.0
    Country confidence
    71/100

  114. Brunei 🇧🇳

    Estimated GDP share
    1.14%
    Country Job Doom
    15.1
    Country confidence
    70/100

  115. Turkmenistan 🇹🇲

    Estimated GDP share
    1.13%
    Country Job Doom
    16.7
    Country confidence
    71/100

  116. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿

    Estimated GDP share
    1.12%
    Country Job Doom
    16.6
    Country confidence
    71/100

  117. Mongolia 🇲🇳

    Estimated GDP share
    1.10%
    Country Job Doom
    15.8
    Country confidence
    71/100

  118. Tonga 🇹🇴

    Estimated GDP share
    1.10%
    Country Job Doom
    17.0
    Country confidence
    72/100

  119. Algeria 🇩🇿

    Estimated GDP share
    1.08%
    Country Job Doom
    14.4
    Country confidence
    72/100

  120. Iran 🇮🇷

    Estimated GDP share
    1.08%
    Country Job Doom
    16.1
    Country confidence
    72/100

  121. State of Palestine 🇵🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    1.06%
    Country Job Doom
    19.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  122. Vietnam 🇻🇳

    Estimated GDP share
    1.04%
    Country Job Doom
    15.9
    Country confidence
    72/100

  123. Indonesia 🇮🇩

    Estimated GDP share
    1.03%
    Country Job Doom
    15.2
    Country confidence
    72/100

  124. Djibouti 🇩🇯

    Estimated GDP share
    1.02%
    Country Job Doom
    21.3
    Country confidence
    71/100

  125. Timor-Leste 🇹🇱

    Estimated GDP share
    1.00%
    Country Job Doom
    18.0
    Country confidence
    72/100

  126. Gabon 🇬🇦

    Estimated GDP share
    0.99%
    Country Job Doom
    14.5
    Country confidence
    71/100

  127. Tunisia 🇹🇳

    Estimated GDP share
    0.95%
    Country Job Doom
    17.3
    Country confidence
    72/100

  128. Lesotho 🇱🇸

    Estimated GDP share
    0.92%
    Country Job Doom
    17.2
    Country confidence
    71/100

  129. Nepal 🇳🇵

    Estimated GDP share
    0.89%
    Country Job Doom
    16.3
    Country confidence
    72/100

  130. Nigeria 🇳🇬

    Estimated GDP share
    0.86%
    Country Job Doom
    16.1
    Country confidence
    72/100

  131. Kiribati 🇰🇮

    Estimated GDP share
    0.81%
    Country Job Doom
    16.8
    Country confidence
    72/100

  132. Vanuatu 🇻🇺

    Estimated GDP share
    0.74%
    Country Job Doom
    15.4
    Country confidence
    72/100

  133. Libya 🇱🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    0.59%
    Country Job Doom
    11.5
    Country confidence
    70/100

  134. Guyana 🇬🇾

    Estimated GDP share
    0.44%
    Country Job Doom
    9.3
    Country confidence
    71/100
SOURCE LEDGER

Evidence and limitations

Source dates describe when evidence became public. Every revision links to its source, and incompatible later releases are disclosed instead of silently blended.

  1. Anthropic

    Anthropic Economic Index, March 2025 release

    Updated occupation-task usage breadth used for the first scored revision

    Historical breadth is calibrated to the later compatible observed-exposure score. · MIT
  2. International Labour Organization and NASK

    Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure

    Task-level theoretical exposure and ISCO-08 exposure category

    Exposure describes technical task potential, not observed job loss. · CC BY 4.0
  3. Anthropic

    Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

    Observed occupation exposure based on task capability and real Claude usage

    The study reports no systematic unemployment increase and only suggestive early-career hiring effects. · MIT
  4. Anthropic

    Anthropic Economic Index: Cadences

    Latest evidence checkpoint and methodology-change disclosure

    The release changed its pipeline and does not provide a directly comparable replacement occupation score. · MIT