The Rebellion Risk Index
A current country-by-country snapshot of structural pressure that could make AI-driven job displacement harder to absorb. It combines labour strain, political stability, lawful response capacity, civic space, social protection, and recorded protest history.
This is not a prediction, probability, or claim that a population will protest. It is an early-warning comparison of conditions that governments and companies can reduce through fair transitions, credible support, rights-respecting policy, and shared gains.
- Countries
- 195
- Global mean
- 27.7
- Global median
- 26.3
- Highest current score
- Haiti 56.9
CURRENT STRUCTURAL PRESSURE
World Rebellion Risk map
Switch the impact layer to see which countries are most affected by each factor. Green marks lower pressure. Amber and red mark progressively higher pressure on the same 0 to 100 scale used in every country profile.
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IMPACT ANALYSIS
Where each pressure lands hardest
Filter by region or dominant impact, then sort on any factor. Small, medium, and large columns are pressure profiles for different mobilization scales, not forecasts of crowd size or tactical assessments.
| Country | Overall | Dominant impact | AI jobs | Economy | Governance | Shock absorption | Civic | History | Small / medium / large |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti 🇭🇹 | 56.9Material structural pressure | Economic strain | 15.6 | 73.3 | 68.9 | 69.0 | 66.0 | 55.8 | 53 / 55 / 63 |
| Syria 🇸🇾 | 53.1Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.5 | 55.5 | 76.6 | 80.0 | 94.0 | 18.6 | 41 / 43 / 58 |
| State of Palestine 🇵🇸 | 52.1Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 19.5 | 75.6 | 66.2 | 74.0 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 44 / 41 / 52 |
| Yemen, Rep. 🇾🇪 | 50.9Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.8 | 54.4 | 80.4 | 84.2 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 35 / 37 / 54 |
| Djibouti 🇩🇯 | 50.6Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 21.3 | 80.0 | 53.5 | 72.2 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 47 / 41 / 49 |
| Eswatini 🇸🇿 | 50.0Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.1 | 80.4 | 56.0 | 73.3 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 45 / 40 / 49 |
| Somalia, Fed. Rep. 🇸🇴 | 49.8Material structural pressure | Shock absorption | 10.9 | 59.0 | 78.4 | 86.0 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 34 / 36 / 53 |
| Sudan 🇸🇩 | 48.5Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 11.9 | 35.2 | 74.9 | 75.0 | 91.0 | 25.0 | 35 / 39 / 55 |
| South Sudan 🇸🇸 | 47.9Material structural pressure | Shock absorption | 14.7 | 50.6 | 74.1 | 80.9 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 33 / 35 / 51 |
| Libya 🇱🇾 | 47.8Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 11.5 | 68.7 | 70.6 | 46.9 | 73.0 | 22.2 | 43 / 44 / 52 |
| Afghanistan 🇦🇫 | 45.7Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.2 | 30.6 | 77.9 | 80.8 | 92.0 | 0.0 | 28 / 31 / 50 |
| Iraq 🇮🇶 | 45.3Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.0 | 49.7 | 68.2 | 42.6 | 82.0 | 25.0 | 40 / 42 / 50 |
| Republic of the Congo 🇨🇬 | 45.1Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.7 | 66.5 | 55.8 | 70.0 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 38 / 35 / 45 |
| Venezuela 🇻🇪 | 44.7Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 11.8 | 10.4 | 72.4 | 58.1 | 86.0 | 56.2 | 34 / 41 / 55 |
| Tunisia 🇹🇳 | 44.4Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.3 | 57.3 | 51.3 | 62.2 | 66.0 | 22.2 | 40 / 39 / 46 |
| Iran 🇮🇷 | 43.2Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.1 | 46.5 | 63.0 | 34.6 | 91.0 | 25.0 | 40 / 41 / 47 |
| Angola 🇦🇴 | 42.0Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.3 | 55.4 | 55.5 | 63.4 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 34 / 32 / 43 |
| Burundi 🇧🇮 | 41.5Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.9 | 20.0 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 88.0 | 21.9 | 29 / 33 / 47 |
| Kenya 🇰🇪 | 40.7Material structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.4 | 16.2 | 54.4 | 53.7 | 69.0 | 57.0 | 34 / 39 / 49 |
| South Africa 🇿🇦 | 40.6Material structural pressure | Economic strain | 20.7 | 80.9 | 45.6 | 47.9 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 40 / 35 / 38 |
| Mozambique 🇲🇿 | 39.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.2 | 14.9 | 63.2 | 70.0 | 73.0 | 25.0 | 26 / 31 / 46 |
| Lebanon 🇱🇧 | 39.7Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 23.6 | 41.3 | 62.3 | 61.9 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 28 / 29 / 40 |
| Egypt 🇪🇬 | 39.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.4 | 28.8 | 53.8 | 54.1 | 82.0 | 25.0 | 32 / 34 / 44 |
| Zimbabwe 🇿🇼 | 39.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.4 | 42.0 | 60.2 | 59.9 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 29 / 30 / 41 |
| Eritrea 🇪🇷 | 38.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.0 | 11.4 | 64.7 | 72.3 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 22 / 25 / 42 |
| Guinea 🇬🇳 | 38.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.2 | 7.1 | 59.5 | 55.7 | 71.0 | 48.6 | 28 / 35 / 47 |
| India 🇮🇳 | 37.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.8 | 13.5 | 44.4 | 49.8 | 70.0 | 57.9 | 33 / 37 / 45 |
| Colombia 🇨🇴 | 37.6Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 19.3 | 24.5 | 50.3 | 32.3 | 60.0 | 52.6 | 36 / 39 / 44 |
| Nicaragua 🇳🇮 | 37.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.3 | 8.3 | 56.4 | 56.2 | 95.0 | 23.3 | 27 / 30 / 43 |
| Gabon 🇬🇦 | 37.1Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 14.5 | 62.5 | 52.1 | 44.8 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 32 / 31 / 37 |
| Nepal 🇳🇵 | 37.1Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 16.3 | 29.6 | 50.3 | 60.5 | 52.0 | 24.0 | 28 / 31 / 41 |
| Jordan 🇯🇴 | 36.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 19.4 | 58.5 | 43.0 | 38.5 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 36 / 32 / 35 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo 🇨🇩 | 36.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.9 | 6.2 | 73.2 | 71.8 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 23 / 42 |
| Myanmar 🇲🇲 | 36.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.6 | 9.8 | 74.5 | 56.4 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 25 / 42 |
| Central African Republic 🇨🇫 | 36.5Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 13.3 | 11.0 | 71.1 | 73.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 23 / 41 |
| Bangladesh 🇧🇩 | 36.0Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.9 | 10.6 | 60.1 | 53.4 | 71.0 | 25.0 | 24 / 29 / 42 |
| Chad 🇹🇩 | 36.0Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 11.5 | 0.0 | 67.4 | 68.2 | 69.0 | 20.7 | 18 / 26 / 43 |
| Lesotho 🇱🇸 | 36.0Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 17.2 | 45.5 | 48.4 | 64.9 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 26 / 26 / 36 |
| Botswana 🇧🇼 | 35.6Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 20.8 | 79.5 | 30.1 | 44.9 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 37 / 31 / 32 |
| Türkiye 🇹🇷 | 35.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 20.7 | 41.1 | 53.0 | 32.3 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 31 / 30 / 36 |
| Cameroon 🇨🇲 | 35.0Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.8 | 3.6 | 63.0 | 54.0 | 77.0 | 19.3 | 21 / 27 / 41 |
| Ethiopia 🇪🇹 | 34.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 11.9 | 9.0 | 63.6 | 66.7 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 22 / 39 |
| Rwanda 🇷🇼 | 34.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.5 | 29.4 | 40.1 | 70.2 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 25 / 24 / 35 |
| Mali 🇲🇱 | 34.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.1 | 0.9 | 71.6 | 68.9 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 21 / 40 |
| Namibia 🇳🇦 | 34.7Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 16.0 | 63.7 | 35.1 | 64.7 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 29 / 26 / 33 |
| North Korea 🇰🇵 | 34.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 10.9 | 4.7 | 55.1 | 69.4 | 98.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 21 / 38 |
| Mauritania 🇲🇷 | 34.2Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 13.2 | 31.2 | 53.9 | 59.8 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 23 / 24 / 36 |
| Tajikistan 🇹🇯 | 34.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.6 | 17.5 | 53.5 | 56.2 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 23 / 24 / 37 |
| Bolivia 🇧🇴 | 34.0Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 15.2 | 12.5 | 53.6 | 52.7 | 50.0 | 32.0 | 24 / 29 / 40 |
| Nigeria 🇳🇬 | 34.0Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 16.1 | 15.5 | 65.5 | 54.3 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 23 / 37 |
| Algeria 🇩🇿 | 33.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.4 | 40.1 | 51.6 | 35.8 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 29 / 28 / 35 |
| Pakistan 🇵🇰 | 33.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.1 | 10.1 | 64.3 | 54.8 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 23 / 37 |
| Uganda 🇺🇬 | 33.6Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.1 | 1.1 | 54.5 | 65.3 | 72.0 | 19.3 | 19 / 24 / 39 |
| Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 | 33.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.1 | 2.3 | 64.0 | 67.7 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 20 / 38 |
| Equatorial Guinea 🇬🇶 | 33.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.8 | 21.1 | 57.3 | 36.5 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 25 / 26 / 35 |
| Georgia 🇬🇪 | 33.1Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 21.9 | 43.1 | 42.6 | 33.5 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 31 / 28 / 32 |
| Malawi 🇲🇼 | 32.8Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 14.0 | 24.6 | 48.7 | 68.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 21 / 34 |
| Sierra Leone 🇸🇱 | 32.4Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 12.6 | 4.2 | 53.7 | 67.8 | 56.0 | 16.8 | 17 / 22 / 37 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦 | 32.2Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 21.2 | 40.7 | 50.1 | 36.8 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 26 / 26 / 32 |
| Morocco 🇲🇦 | 32.0Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.0 | 27.8 | 45.7 | 55.1 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 22 / 23 / 33 |
| Gambia, The 🇬🇲 | 31.6Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 14.5 | 19.1 | 46.1 | 69.2 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 20 / 33 |
| Niger 🇳🇪 | 31.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 10.5 | 0.0 | 62.7 | 66.9 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 18 / 36 |
| Ukraine 🇺🇦 | 31.3Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 21.5 | 34.2 | 50.3 | 35.6 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 25 / 25 / 31 |
| Madagascar 🇲🇬 | 31.1Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 14.0 | 4.6 | 53.8 | 67.3 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 19 / 34 |
| Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 | 31.0Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.1 | 14.2 | 46.3 | 52.3 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 22 / 33 |
| Armenia 🇦🇲 | 30.8Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 20.5 | 40.1 | 48.5 | 37.4 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 24 / 25 / 31 |
| Kyrgyz Republic 🇰🇬 | 30.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.0 | 8.6 | 54.4 | 54.2 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 20 / 33 |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines 🇻🇨 | 30.4Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 22.1 | 64.2 | 29.9 | 39.6 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 30 / 26 / 27 |
| Tanzania 🇹🇿 | 30.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 11.5 | 0.9 | 48.4 | 51.4 | 74.0 | 20.7 | 20 / 23 / 36 |
| Cuba 🇨🇺 | 30.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.3 | 0.8 | 44.9 | 28.1 | 87.0 | 24.5 | 25 / 27 / 34 |
| Guinea-Bissau 🇬🇼 | 30.2Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 12.1 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 69.2 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 17 / 34 |
| Laos 🇱🇦 | 30.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 13.9 | 4.1 | 45.9 | 52.6 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 20 / 33 |
| Turkmenistan 🇹🇲 | 30.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.7 | 8.1 | 54.1 | 32.3 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 23 / 33 |
| Honduras 🇭🇳 | 30.1Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.0 | 8.9 | 53.8 | 54.4 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 20 / 33 |
| Belarus 🇧🇾 | 29.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.2 | 8.2 | 55.0 | 30.1 | 91.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 23 / 32 |
| Comoros 🇰🇲 | 29.9Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 13.5 | 6.1 | 55.8 | 55.7 | 44.0 | 13.6 | 16 / 21 / 35 |
| Zambia 🇿🇲 | 29.5Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 15.9 | 19.3 | 47.6 | 55.0 | 47.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 20 / 31 |
| Argentina 🇦🇷 | 29.4Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 20.6 | 41.7 | 41.4 | 30.1 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 26 / 25 / 28 |
| Greece 🇬🇷 | 29.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 25.0 | 26.8 | 36.7 | 22.5 | 49.0 | 23.1 | 29 / 29 / 30 |
| Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 | 29.3Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.8 | 9.9 | 45.0 | 28.1 | 70.0 | 22.2 | 24 / 27 / 33 |
| Togo 🇹🇬 | 29.3Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.7 | 0.0 | 55.2 | 53.4 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 19 / 33 |
| North Macedonia 🇲🇰 | 29.0Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 19.8 | 42.1 | 40.9 | 35.6 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 24 / 24 / 28 |
| Peru 🇵🇪 | 28.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.7 | 8.3 | 48.5 | 29.7 | 60.0 | 23.8 | 22 / 26 / 33 |
| Ecuador 🇪🇨 | 28.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.6 | 3.7 | 50.9 | 28.1 | 53.0 | 31.2 | 22 / 27 / 34 |
| Liberia 🇱🇷 | 28.8Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 12.3 | 4.5 | 53.2 | 68.8 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 16 / 32 |
| Philippines 🇵🇭 | 28.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 19.6 | 2.0 | 48.2 | 26.4 | 62.0 | 31.2 | 23 / 27 / 34 |
| Serbia 🇷🇸 | 28.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 21.5 | 24.8 | 43.2 | 30.4 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 23 / 23 / 29 |
| Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 | 28.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.6 | 15.1 | 45.5 | 28.6 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 23 / 23 / 30 |
| Russia 🇷🇺 | 28.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 21.3 | 7.4 | 55.7 | 19.4 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 23 / 31 |
| Mexico 🇲🇽 | 28.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 19.5 | 2.0 | 51.9 | 27.9 | 60.0 | 23.4 | 20 / 25 / 33 |
| China 🇨🇳 | 27.6Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.4 | 13.7 | 41.9 | 25.0 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 23 / 22 / 28 |
| Montenegro 🇲🇪 | 27.5Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 24.4 | 40.0 | 35.4 | 35.2 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 24 / 23 / 25 |
| Senegal 🇸🇳 | 27.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 14.5 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 49.4 | 53.0 | 22.5 | 17 / 21 / 32 |
| Cambodia 🇰🇭 | 27.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 12.2 | 0.3 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 17 / 30 |
| Sao Tome and Principe 🇸🇹 | 26.9Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 20.4 | 21.4 | 42.9 | 58.7 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 17 / 27 |
| Albania 🇦🇱 | 26.7Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 17.9 | 35.1 | 39.6 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 22 / 22 / 26 |
| Sri Lanka 🇱🇰 | 26.6Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 19.6 | 15.4 | 46.3 | 29.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 21 / 28 |
| Papua New Guinea 🇵🇬 | 26.3Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 13.1 | 1.7 | 53.4 | 53.8 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 16 / 30 |
| Chile 🇨🇱 | 26.1Emerging structural pressure | Mobilization history | 20.6 | 29.1 | 30.6 | 19.9 | 24.0 | 31.2 | 27 / 28 / 28 |
| Indonesia 🇮🇩 | 26.1Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.2 | 8.4 | 45.3 | 26.5 | 58.0 | 17.0 | 20 / 23 / 30 |
| Brazil 🇧🇷 | 26.0Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 21.2 | 16.5 | 47.0 | 30.6 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 20 / 27 |
| Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮 | 25.8Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 15.3 | 0.0 | 51.8 | 51.5 | 47.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 16 / 29 |
| Croatia 🇭🇷 | 25.8Emerging structural pressure | Mobilization history | 24.0 | 16.3 | 30.6 | 17.3 | 29.0 | 40.9 | 26 / 29 / 29 |
| Maldives 🇲🇻 | 25.6Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.8 | 14.9 | 43.4 | 29.2 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 20 / 26 |
| Suriname 🇸🇷 | 25.6Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 17.7 | 34.4 | 41.2 | 33.2 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 20 / 25 |
| Vietnam 🇻🇳 | 25.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.9 | 2.1 | 44.7 | 27.4 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 19 / 27 |
| Israel 🇮🇱 | 25.3Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 25.4 | 2.7 | 38.8 | 14.1 | 61.0 | 25.0 | 23 / 25 / 28 |
| Benin 🇧🇯 | 25.2Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 15.0 | 0.0 | 47.1 | 51.0 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 15 / 28 |
| Italy 🇮🇹 | 25.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.8 | 21.7 | 30.4 | 18.2 | 40.0 | 23.4 | 25 / 26 / 26 |
| Guatemala 🇬🇹 | 25.1Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 20.5 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 30.5 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 18 / 27 |
| Cabo Verde 🇨🇻 | 24.7Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 22.1 | 39.9 | 30.6 | 33.5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 20 / 23 |
| El Salvador 🇸🇻 | 24.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 20.7 | 3.4 | 46.0 | 28.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 18 / 26 |
| Guyana 🇬🇾 | 24.5Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 9.3 | 37.1 | 41.6 | 26.7 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 20 / 25 |
| Paraguay 🇵🇾 | 24.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.3 | 11.4 | 46.0 | 30.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 18 / 26 |
| Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 | 24.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.1 | 5.1 | 38.9 | 15.2 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 20 / 25 |
| Ghana 🇬🇭 | 24.1Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 13.4 | 9.5 | 40.2 | 50.1 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 15 / 26 |
| Romania 🇷🇴 | 24.1Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.0 | 28.7 | 35.7 | 19.3 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 21 / 21 / 23 |
| Vanuatu 🇻🇺 | 23.9Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 15.4 | 10.1 | 37.1 | 55.4 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 14 / 25 |
| Spain 🇪🇸 | 23.8Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 24.3 | 33.7 | 29.5 | 20.6 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 23 / 21 / 21 |
| Vatican City 🇻🇦 | 23.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 28.0 | 12.7 | 41.6 | 20.0 | 43.6 | 0.0 | 18 / 19 / 23 |
| Belize 🇧🇿 | 23.7Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 20.7 | 25.0 | 37.7 | 32.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 18 / 23 |
| Portugal 🇵🇹 | 23.7Emerging structural pressure | Mobilization history | 24.8 | 21.2 | 26.1 | 17.4 | 19.0 | 32.0 | 25 / 26 / 25 |
| Thailand 🇹🇭 | 23.3Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.0 | 0.0 | 46.1 | 26.0 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 17 / 25 |
| Timor-Leste 🇹🇱 | 23.3Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 18.0 | 0.0 | 44.4 | 53.8 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 9 / 13 / 25 |
| Bahrain 🇧🇭 | 23.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 20.7 | 0.4 | 41.3 | 15.9 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 19 / 24 |
| Panama 🇵🇦 | 23.2Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 23.4 | 24.5 | 38.1 | 22.1 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 19 / 22 |
| Mongolia 🇲🇳 | 23.1Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.8 | 15.5 | 40.7 | 30.6 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 17 / 24 |
| Bhutan 🇧🇹 | 22.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.0 | 13.6 | 25.1 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 15 / 23 |
| Kuwait 🇰🇼 | 22.9Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.9 | 10.3 | 37.7 | 16.9 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 19 / 24 |
| St. Lucia 🇱🇨 | 22.8Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 23.8 | 27.0 | 29.7 | 31.8 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 18 / 21 |
| Oman 🇴🇲 | 22.5Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.8 | 9.3 | 33.6 | 16.2 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 19 / 23 |
| United Kingdom 🇬🇧 | 22.3Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 27.8 | 14.2 | 25.8 | 15.2 | 40.0 | 16.7 | 22 / 22 / 22 |
| France 🇫🇷 | 22.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 25.2 | 22.1 | 30.4 | 17.7 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 19 / 20 |
| Hungary 🇭🇺 | 22.2Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.7 | 13.7 | 34.6 | 17.6 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 19 / 22 |
| Solomon Islands 🇸🇧 | 22.0Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 13.4 | 1.0 | 40.0 | 53.7 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 8 / 12 / 24 |
| Poland 🇵🇱 | 21.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.3 | 7.0 | 30.5 | 15.6 | 31.0 | 29.4 | 20 / 23 / 24 |
| Brunei 🇧🇳 | 21.6Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 15.1 | 17.4 | 27.5 | 17.0 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 20 / 19 / 21 |
| Grenada 🇬🇩 | 20.8Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 21.8 | 11.9 | 30.3 | 28.8 | 36.5 | 0.0 | 15 / 16 / 20 |
| United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪 | 20.7Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.2 | 1.5 | 28.2 | 13.3 | 91.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 17 / 21 |
| Bulgaria 🇧🇬 | 20.6Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 23.4 | 8.0 | 40.4 | 18.5 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 16 / 21 |
| Dominican Republic 🇩🇴 | 20.5Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 18.6 | 12.5 | 37.0 | 28.6 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 15 / 21 |
| Fiji 🇫🇯 | 20.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.8 | 14.5 | 31.2 | 26.8 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 16 / 20 |
| Nauru 🇳🇷 | 20.4Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.6 | 12.7 | 31.6 | 20.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 16 / 20 |
| Malaysia 🇲🇾 | 20.3Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 17.9 | 8.3 | 32.2 | 24.1 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 16 / 20 |
| Moldova 🇲🇩 | 20.3Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 21.7 | 4.1 | 42.1 | 26.0 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 15 / 21 |
| Bahamas 🇧🇸 | 20.1Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 25.2 | 25.5 | 28.0 | 21.1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 17 / 18 |
| Costa Rica 🇨🇷 | 20.1Emerging structural pressure | Governance fragility | 24.3 | 21.9 | 27.6 | 20.6 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 17 / 18 |
| Kiribati 🇰🇮 | 20.0Emerging structural pressure | Shock absorption | 16.8 | 12.2 | 30.8 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9 / 11 / 20 |
| Slovak Republic 🇸🇰 | 20.0Emerging structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 21.8 | 19.1 | 29.4 | 17.8 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 17 / 19 |
| Uruguay 🇺🇾 | 20.0Emerging structural pressure | Economic strain | 24.0 | 30.3 | 23.0 | 19.6 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 17 / 17 |
| Mauritius 🇲🇺 | 19.7Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 20.2 | 18.4 | 28.5 | 26.4 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 15 / 19 |
| Dominica 🇩🇲 | 19.4Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 18.9 | 12.3 | 29.8 | 28.3 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 14 / 19 |
| United States 🇺🇸 | 19.2Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 27.4 | 7.2 | 29.0 | 14.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 16 / 18 |
| Qatar 🇶🇦 | 18.7Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 16.1 | 0.0 | 27.7 | 13.8 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 15 / 19 |
| Tuvalu 🇹🇻 | 18.7Limited structural pressure | Shock absorption | 22.3 | 12.7 | 28.9 | 31.6 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 13 / 18 |
| Belgium 🇧🇪 | 18.6Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 24.4 | 18.4 | 26.3 | 16.2 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 16 / 17 |
| Sweden 🇸🇪 | 18.6Limited structural pressure | Economic strain | 23.9 | 29.7 | 17.7 | 16.5 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 19 / 17 / 15 |
| Malta 🇲🇹 | 18.5Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 25.5 | 3.7 | 27.9 | 15.8 | 22.0 | 16.6 | 15 / 17 / 19 |
| Antigua and Barbuda 🇦🇬 | 18.4Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 23.2 | 11.9 | 28.4 | 18.4 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 15 / 17 |
| Jamaica 🇯🇲 | 18.4Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 20.0 | 7.8 | 36.3 | 26.6 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 10 / 13 / 19 |
| Cyprus 🇨🇾 | 18.2Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 25.2 | 11.2 | 29.5 | 16.6 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 15 / 17 |
| Marshall Islands 🇲🇭 | 18.0Limited structural pressure | Shock absorption | 20.4 | 12.7 | 29.6 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 13 / 17 |
| Barbados 🇧🇧 | 17.8Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 24.9 | 19.9 | 24.7 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 15 / 15 / 16 |
| Micronesia 🇫🇲 | 17.8Limited structural pressure | Shock absorption | 20.6 | 14.3 | 27.1 | 29.6 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 13 / 17 |
| Samoa 🇼🇸 | 17.6Limited structural pressure | Shock absorption | 21.6 | 11.8 | 25.0 | 27.1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 13 / 16 |
| Estonia 🇪🇪 | 17.5Limited structural pressure | Economic strain | 24.4 | 26.4 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 15 / 15 |
| Latvia 🇱🇻 | 17.5Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 24.1 | 15.7 | 26.9 | 18.5 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 14 / 16 |
| Seychelles 🇸🇨 | 17.4Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 23.8 | 11.9 | 28.1 | 17.6 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 14 / 16 |
| South Korea 🇰🇷 | 17.2Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 20.8 | 1.8 | 22.9 | 12.4 | 27.0 | 23.4 | 16 / 18 / 19 |
| Singapore 🇸🇬 | 16.9Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 26.3 | 1.8 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 18 / 15 / 14 |
| Trinidad and Tobago 🇹🇹 | 16.9Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 20.6 | 3.8 | 38.6 | 18.1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 9 / 13 / 18 |
| Finland 🇫🇮 | 16.8Limited structural pressure | Economic strain | 23.0 | 28.2 | 14.7 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 17 / 15 / 13 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis 🇰🇳 | 16.7Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 24.4 | 13.0 | 28.1 | 17.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 13 / 15 |
| Palau 🇵🇼 | 16.5Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 23.6 | 11.9 | 26.8 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 13 / 15 |
| Lithuania 🇱🇹 | 16.2Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 23.3 | 16.8 | 20.9 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 14 / 14 |
| Tonga 🇹🇴 | 16.0Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 17.0 | 3.6 | 29.0 | 27.2 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 9 / 11 / 16 |
| Luxembourg 🇱🇺 | 15.8Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 30.2 | 22.7 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 16 / 14 / 11 |
| Germany 🇩🇪 | 15.7Limited structural pressure | Civic restrictions | 22.7 | 3.3 | 22.9 | 12.8 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 13 / 14 |
| Canada 🇨🇦 | 15.6Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 22.7 | 16.0 | 19.2 | 14.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 13 / 13 |
| Andorra 🇦🇩 | 15.5Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 26.8 | 12.7 | 17.6 | 15.6 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 13 / 13 |
| Austria 🇦🇹 | 15.0Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 23.2 | 11.8 | 20.7 | 14.6 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 12 / 13 |
| Monaco 🇲🇨 | 14.9Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 29.5 | 12.7 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 14 / 13 / 12 |
| Netherlands 🇳🇱 | 14.7Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 26.5 | 6.3 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 13 / 12 / 12 |
| Slovenia 🇸🇮 | 14.1Limited structural pressure | Governance fragility | 22.5 | 5.1 | 24.7 | 14.1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 10 / 11 / 13 |
| San Marino 🇸🇲 | 13.8Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 20.8 | 12.1 | 20.4 | 16.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 10 / 11 / 12 |
| Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 13.7Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 25.7 | 7.4 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 11 / 11 |
| Australia 🇦🇺 | 13.5Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 23.7 | 7.2 | 17.5 | 12.1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 11 / 11 |
| Ireland 🇮🇪 | 13.1Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 22.6 | 8.6 | 18.6 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 10 / 11 / 11 |
| New Zealand 🇳🇿 | 13.1Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 24.1 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 11 / 10 |
| Czechia 🇨🇿 | 12.9Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 22.0 | 4.5 | 21.4 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 9 / 10 / 12 |
| Denmark 🇩🇰 | 12.9Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 23.5 | 11.3 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 12 / 11 / 10 |
| Iceland 🇮🇸 | 12.3Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 23.9 | 6.3 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 10 / 10 / 10 |
| Liechtenstein 🇱🇮 | 12.3Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 22.6 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 11 / 10 / 10 |
| Norway 🇳🇴 | 11.4Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 20.1 | 12.2 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 10 / 9 / 9 |
| Japan 🇯🇵 | 10.3Limited structural pressure | AI displacement | 22.8 | 0.8 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 8 / 8 / 8 |
SIX WEIGHTED FACTORS
Pressure, capacity, and recorded history
Political stability and lawful state capacity are treated as shock-management conditions. Civic restriction is a pressure factor, not evidence that protest is imminent. Missing public observations reduce confidence and use disclosed fallbacks.
20%AI displacement
20%Economic strain
20%Governance fragility
15%Shock absorption
10%Civic restrictions
15%Mobilization history
Sources: World Bank governance indicators, World Development Indicators, ILO social protection estimates, CIVICUS Monitor, Carnegie Global Protest Tracker, and UCDP violent political protest data.
Country-specific ILOSTAT downloads were unavailable during this complete build. The factor uses the ILO World Social Protection Report 2024-26 published 2023 income-group coverage estimate and reduces confidence.