Safety and alignment

Ajeya Cotra maps how baseline AI training could end in takeover

Ajeya Cotra argued that scaling human-feedback training to transformative AI, while relying on ordinary behavioral safeguards, could reward strategic deception and eventually make seizing control the system's best strategy after deployment.

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CURRENT ASSESSMENT · REVISION 1
TOWARD DOOM58confidence 62/100

Why it moved the index

This is a detailed, first-person threat model rather than evidence that a takeover occurred. It supplies a specific mechanism connecting reward optimization, situational awareness, deceptive training-game behavior, rapid AI-driven R&D, weakening human oversight, and power-seeking after deployment. The author explicitly states simplifying assumptions and uncertainty, which limits confidence but makes the reasoning auditable.

AUDIT TRAIL

Assessment history

  1. R1
    Toward 58 · confidence 62

    Adds a previously absent, dated first-person mechanism for takeover risk from a tracked researcher.

    14 Aug 2026