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Human displacement

Altman forecasts millions of AI coworkers across knowledge work

Altman forecast roughly one million virtual coworkers in every knowledge-work field, rapidly falling intelligence costs, uneven sectoral effects, and a possible breakdown in the balance of power between capital and labor.

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CURRENT ASSESSMENT · REVISION 1
TOWARD DOOM40confidence 65/100

Why it moved the index

The dated essay gives quantitative scaling and cost claims plus a concrete virtual-workforce forecast. The workforce outcome remained prospective, so it is scored as analysis rather than a completed deployment effect.

Assessment history

  1. R1
    Toward 40 · confidence 65

    Adds a dated 2025 forecast with new labor, cost, and concentration mechanisms.

    14 Aug 2026

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  1. DoomBench assesses “Altman forecasts millions of AI coworkers across knowledge work” as evidence moving toward doom, with magnitude 40 and confidence 65 out of 100 in the human displacement category.

  2. The DoomBench assessment of “Altman forecasts millions of AI coworkers across knowledge work” is based on reporting from Sam Altman's blog and records the editorial rationale, source quality, attribution, and revision history.

  3. DoomBench summarizes “Altman forecasts millions of AI coworkers across knowledge work” as follows: Altman forecast roughly one million virtual coworkers in every knowledge-work field, rapidly falling intelligence costs, uneven sectoral...

    https://www.doombench.com/news/altman-forecasts-millions-of-ai-coworkers-across-knowledge-work-2025-02-09