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Safety and alignment

Toby Ord estimates a 10% century-scale risk of losing control to unaligned AI

In a full interview about The Precipice, Toby Ord estimates a 10% chance that unaligned AI causes humanity to lose control of its future within a century. He decomposes that forecast into a 50% chance of developing systems more intelligent than humanity and an 80% conditional chance of surviving that transition while retaining control.

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CURRENT ASSESSMENT · REVISION 1
TOWARD DOOM30confidence 68/100

Why it moved the index

Ord's explicit forecast and decomposition add a distinct, uncertainty-aware argument that developing systems more intelligent than humanity creates a material risk of permanently losing human control, while remaining a forecast rather than an observed event.

Assessment history

  1. R1
    Toward 30 · confidence 68

    Adds a previously absent, exactly timestamped first-person 2020 forecast and control argument from Toby Ord's complete interview.

    21 Sept 2026

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  1. DoomBench assesses “Toby Ord estimates a 10% century-scale risk of losing control to unaligned AI” as evidence moving toward doom, with magnitude 30 and confidence 68 out of 100 in the safety and alignment category.

  2. The DoomBench assessment of “Toby Ord estimates a 10% century-scale risk of losing control to unaligned AI” is based on reporting from 80,000 Hours and records the editorial rationale, source quality, attribution, and revision history.

  3. DoomBench summarizes “Toby Ord estimates a 10% century-scale risk of losing control to unaligned AI” as follows: In a full interview about The Precipice, Toby Ord estimates a 10% chance that unaligned AI causes humanity to lose control...

    https://www.doombench.com/news/toby-ord-estimates-a-10-century-scale-risk-of-losing-control-to-unaligned-ai-2020-03-07