Competitive race

United States assures NVIDIA that H20 export licenses for China will be granted

NVIDIA said it was applying to resume H20 accelerator sales in China after the US government assured the company that licenses would be granted, reversing the practical effect of April's access restriction.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT · REVISION 1
TOWARD DOOM58confidence 91/100

Why it moved the index

Restoring access to advanced accelerators weakened a major compute control and reopened consequential training capacity in the US-China AI race.

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Assessment history

  1. R1
    Toward 58 · confidence 91

    New July 2025 compute-control reversal with exact NVIDIA publication metadata and no durable collision.

    12 Aug 2026